No, that's not true. The claim that the poorest people in 2100 will live like they do in today's Switzerland is an unwarranted simplification and is not supported by the models usually cited.

What the models actually show

The mentioned forecast comes from the Earth4All project's \"Great Leap Forward\" scenario. However, its results are misinterpreted.

• The \"Great Leap Forward\" scenario is not a forecast, but a \"what if.\" It is not a prediction of the future, but a modeling of what potentially could happen if humanity undertakes five extreme reversals (eradication of poverty, reduction of inequality, expansion of women's rights, transformation of food and energy systems) immediately and simultaneously.
• It is about average incomes, not living like in Switzerland. The model shows that in this scenario, the average income per capita in the poorest regions could significantly increase. For example, for sub-Saharan Africa, it is projected that the disposable income of workers and GDP per capita will double compared to the \"Too Little, Too Late\" scenario. However, this does not mean achieving the level of life in Switzerland, but only a significant improvement over the current situation.
• The default reality is \"Too Little, Too Late.\" If current trends persist, according to the models, poverty in sub-Saharan Africa will increase from 500 million to 900 million people by 2100. In this scenario, there is no mention of the level of Switzerland.

Comparison of Scenarios

Key Conclusion

The Earth4All forecasts are not a guarantee of a bright future, but a warning. They show that without radical and coordinated actions, the world may face an increase in poverty and social tension by 2100. The mentioned statement is an potential outcome of one of the scenarios that requires unprecedented political decisions, not an automatic future.

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